A new US intel report predicts the founding of a Palestinian state by 2030, but key issues such as Jerusalem’s final status will likely remain unresolved.

It is likely that unofficial actions will lead to a Palestinian state by 2030, US intelligence analysts cited by AFP said Monday.

Victory signs flashed in front of Palestinian flag – Photo: REUTERS/Ali Jarekji

“On the one hand, if the Islamic Republic maintains power in Iran and is able to develop nuclear weapons, the Middle East will face a highly unstable future,” a new intelligence report said. “On the other hand, the emergence of moderate, democratic governments or a breakthrough agreement to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict could have enormously positive consequences.”

However, according to AFP, the report predicted that a more likely scenario was that unofficial actions would lead toward a Palestinian state with key issues such as the status of Jerusalem remaining unresolved.

The report, “Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds,” was issued by the National Intelligence Council, an analytical arm of the US government’s Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

It is the fifth report of a series – the previous one was released in 2008 – that aims to stimulate “strategic thinking” among decision makers and not to predict the future. The reports intentionally coincide with presidential election years to offer insights on global trends to new administrations.

Islamist terrorism might end by 2030, but terrorism is unlikely to disappear completely because states may use such groups due to a “strong sense of insecurity,” the report said.

“With more widespread access to lethal and disruptive technologies, individuals who are experts in such niche areas as cyber systems might sell their services to the highest bidder, including terrorists, who would focus less on causing mass casualties and more on creating widespread economic and financial disruptions.”

View original Jerusalem Post publication at: http://www.jpost.com/MiddleEast/Article.aspx?id=295409